The last time I "retreated" the Nifty was skirting at 4400. I was very uncomfortable with what i saw: unbridled optimism. I called it then, "the slope of hope". Many people did not like my opinion, but anyway i decided to "walk the talk" and sold all my long positions and went short within my limitations. Now, again I am uncomfortable, but for entirely different reasons :this time, I see unfounded pessimism and hopelessness.
I call it the "Wall of Fear". The wall seems so humungous and everyone seems to be running scared. I remember the visual interpretation of Alexander Elder in his book Trading For a Living, wherein he likens the market movements to two rival gangs of Bulls and Bears, engaged in fighting over territory. The stronger of the gangs keep pushing the relatively weaker gang back in to their territory. When they are dangerously deep into their rival's territory, the so-called "weak gang" gets its act together and fights ferociously with their backs to the wall and push the original stronger rivals back. The "hunter" becomes the "hunted". I think that such a situation has arrived. It is time for the "hunted" to turn "hunter". If ever there was a time for a short-term trader to sell all his heirlooms (including his Mother-in-law's jewels) , this is the Time to Do It.
No point in quoting, Warren Buffet or other prophets who say: Buy when there is blood on the streets. When there is blood on the streets - not just a small drop, nay a stream of blood, nor a river; right now there is an ocean of blood out there. There is an ocean of opportunities out there begging to be bought.
I have done my duty: I am long in the market like never before. This is all a humble soldier can do. What will you do?
Happy Diwali.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
An Ocean of Opportunities - Sainik
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