Salute - Anil Desai

I salute and proud of the heroes who braved the terror.

Anil Desai,
Mumbaikar.

Nifty Futures: Time to Go Long ?

Atleast for some time. Enlarge and read the chart.

Back to Pavilion - Anil Desai

After the falling house of cards and the rally thereafter many traders are confused. As mentioned in the post of September 19, Nifty future did a double century but as mentioned the rally could not be trusted. The Nifty slipped again today.

Tomorrow i. e. on September 23, Nifty is expected to go down further. Where is it heading? My view is 3500 or 3300 in a month or two? Well, only God knows for sure. Keep praying that the approaching Diwali will be brighter, else many will not light the diya this Diwali.

Note: The attached chart is for long-term investors.

Can this Rally be Trusted? - Anil Desai

As suggested in post of September 14, Falling House of Cards Nifty almost tested the previous low of 3790 (yesterday's low was 3799). Nifty has bounced back from here. Today too, this run-up would continue and and add another couple of centuries in Nifty future, in a day or two. But can this be considered the end of bearishness? I doubt very much.

Falling House of Cards - Anil Desai

Nifty spot chart is full of patterns showing a triangle break down, Head and shoulder etc. Now it is at a very important support level. Break of 4212 might test 3790 again in absence of any positive news remaining. An equally important level 4180 may act as an oasis in desert.
A bounce back before reaching above levels may be an opprtunity to sell and cover later.

Nifty Wants to Fly Up - Anil Desai

A simple trading system gave a buy signal on Nifty. Coincidentally, today Nifty also closed above the low of March 18 (circled white ), which is a major resistance. I think it is the time to go long.

Quote: The truth is rarely pure and never simple - Oscar Wilde

Is the Nightmare Returning? - Anil Desai

It appears like today would be a gap-down opening. If Nifty future closes much below in the red today, it could be that the nightmare of island/island cluster reversal starts to raise its head again.

Dilli Ab Bhi Dur Hai - Nifty Future - Anil Desai

Delhi is still far away. When a tug-of-war is going on between our political parties, how can our market remain a silent spectator? This is evident from last five day's movement in the Nifty future. Looking at charts it seems that everyday a trap is laid, to trade in the opposite direction of the overall weak trend. I would still wait for a clear signal before I trade long - rather I would wait for a signal in any direction. This means Nifty future would have to 4065 on a closing basis, for longs, or trade below 3944 in the southern direction, to trade short. Until then, I would wait till the air is clear to breathe again.

Nifty Future Heading for 3980 - Anil Desai

Nifty future is moving toward the target of 3980 given in the post of June 24. As indicated time and again about where the market is heading, it is important to note that this level of 3980 is a make-or-break level. To resume the bullishness (which I doubt), it has to turn up before reaching this level and give some confirmations. If it falls below this, alarm bells will ring again and a fall below 3950, will make many beggars. Always enlarge the charts and study them. Please heed this warning seriously.

QUOTE:

How do you function in a world where accurate prediction is rarely possible, where history isn't a reliable guide to the future and where the most important events cannot be anticipated?

Nifty Update for June 26 - MACD Divergence - Anil Desai

Yes there was a divergence on MACD as seen in the chart and market respected the indicator. But how long, let us see.

Nifty Future - More Downside - Anil Desai

There was a general view that markets would give a sharp upturn from June 23, so it would be a good idea to buy Nifty future, but I urge you all again to refer to my post of June 22, which showed all possible levels that NF could reach. In my opinion the markets are still weak so do not get trapped. Wait till indicators confirm the reversal. Day trading in such a condition could bring disaster.If you look at the above EOD chart of Nifty future, it appears heading for 3980 for sure.

Posting different charts from a variety of software and indicators is just to confirm wether they all telling the same story or not. I hope you are all convinced now.

Avoid Being a Long-term Disinvestor - Anil Desai

Just enlarge the above chart and study the notes: The chart is of Nifty future on monthly basis.


Another chart of Monthly Nifty Future: Look at the ADX indicator indicating strong weakness in long-term uptrend and no sign of any reversal. Beware, insanity will return below 4010. Just away from the market till a solid reversal indicator appears, otherwise your hardearned money will go in the drains.

Quote: Ludwig von Mises used to say that governments will always try to get people to focus on prices when thinking about inflation. But rising prices are a result of inflation, not inflation itself. Inflation is the increase in the money supply. If we understood inflation that way, we would instantly know how to cure it: simply demand that the Federal Reserve cease increasing the money supply.

Nifty Future - Bullish Island Reversal or Failure - Anil Desai

Nifty future daily chart shows an bullish Island-cluster reversal pattern. The doji and volume surge suggests the bullishness in the coming days, yet today's almost bearish engulfing pattern seems to be spoiling the formation. Tomorrow might be the D-day to determine the success or failure of this pattern. However, I continue to hold the view that 4200 should be tested soon.

Read below why still you should not act on this pattern and wait till pattern to take shape completely.

Now some theory on Island reversal: I am posting sample charts showing this pattern.

The above figure shows an example of an island bottom reversal chart pattern. Price enters the island at A by gapping lower and another gap sharing the same price appears at B. The two gaps form the island bottom.

You can see why islands do not work well. This one shows price moving up at B and then reversing, throwing back to the breakout price and continuing lower, ending well below the bottom of the island. Throwbacks and pullbacks hurt post-breakout performance. Since throwbacks and pullbacks happen so frequently, so you can wait for them to complete before taking a position.

Read more on Island reversal pattern here and here and here

Nifty Future for June 12 - Do We have a Reversal?

The behavior of the Nifty from the afternoon of the June 10, where it recovered about 100 pts from the day's low, and today, June 11, is: Has the days of downtrend reversed?

For this, let us examine two different software, each of which shows two different counts of waves. On studying these two counts, we ask whether they both differ, and which one is telling the truth.

My opinion is that as a matter of fact, both counts are telling the same story. The chart on the left is in continuation of the chart posted yesterday. Not much has changed since yesterday. The targets are almost remains the same. Moreover, it shows downtrends on all counts of waves.

The chart on the right may differ, on the count of waves, but it too tells the same story, that more downside is left . The buying zone predicted by this software is around 4180 to 4240, which confirms the targets given in the previous posts.

This is the time to stay away and not to adventure going long unless the indicators confirm the reversal. One or two upward bounces do not make a reversal.

Nifty Future for June 11 - Do Not Go Long - Anil Desai

Beware if you are thinking of going long in Nifty futures. My opinion is that every rise is an opportunity to sell. Enlarge the chart and check the targets and exits. As usual the red brush marks are targets. Only a miracle or sudden change in global scenerio only can save the downfall.

Nifty Spot - Where will it be Today - Anil Desai

Huge gap down opening of Nifty cash is expected. Target 4479 ? Pls do not venture shorting.

Nifty - Destination 4200 - Anil Desai

Let us talk about Nifty via Reliance (chart posted above). As indicated in my earlier posts, Nifty breached even the last pullback level of 4610. The bearish engulfing candlestick formation on both Reliance and Nifty is suggesting that our stock market is slowly slipping into a coma.

Levels to watch for:

Nifty closing below 4495 will see more bloodbath and panic in midcaps will start, as per my assumption. Let us pray the buying will emerge before this level is reached. The next level for a pullback is 4215. It is best to stay away and keep your cash intact till a trend reversal is confirmed, which may be either tomorrow , next week , next month or next year.

Nifty Future for June 4 - A Mirage - Anil Desai

As mentioned in the yesterday's post, Nifty did surprise all and closed higher on intraday basis. But still it is not the time to celebrate. Entry to earn from going long is like a "mrugjal" (mirage). Nifty is still very weak on other timeframes. The coming days might see the panic in midcaps.

The Stock Talk - Anil Desai

It is time to take stock.

Nifty: As mentined in the post of May 26, and the subsequent followup on May 30, Nifty is
moving towards its next pullback level of 4610, closing below the previous one given at
4749. If intraday, traders must be careful as there is too much of bearishness in the air. Nifty
is in a bad habit of surprising all. Overall, if 4610 breaks downward, panic steps in and a freefall in midcap shares would be observed.

3iInfotech Fut: The stoploss was hit. The pattern is valid till it reaches 110.

Sell Sail Fut: Posted on 28-5-08 . Gave good profis. Better to be satisfied. If still greedy 140
Should be a stop to that.

KS Oils : Went against the projections due to market fall. Better to step out till the air is clear.

3i Infotech Futures - Anil Desai

Personally I do not like to trade futures. But when you see such a good inverted H/S pattern it
is difficult to resist the trade. Longs can be initiated with a stoploss of 117. Condition: Market should turn positive.