RNRL in Symmetrical 4th Wave Triangle

Here's a simple explanation for a bullish view on RNRL. I have used Elliot Wave Analysis. Currently RNRL is in the 4th wave corrective and a symmetrical triangle. Once it breaks out it is likely to touch the previous significant top of 72. Once it crosses 72, several new targets open. In any case 61 is a strong support for RNRL. We see that the 3rd wave is almost equal to the first, which means that the 5th wave would be explosive reaching targets of even 95 and above.

The 4th Wave is Progressing - Rakesh Chandra

The market has behaved in a way human mass psychology does.
In the last report we said to wait for next 2 days, the market movement wouldl cool off and bears would be the winners. Yesterday was just as we expected.

Now this is is the 3rd-day consecutive decline. In the near-term this support area looks like an A wave. We would again see some upside as B wave and then again C down wave. This would be the termination of the 4th corrective wave.

With stoploss 3,637 short below 3,601.99 for lower target >3,545>>3,452>>>3,395. In the last report we had advised to take 3500 put or sell 3750 call option.

USD Investment in India Has Peaked

If we look at the investment chart of US dollars in absolute amounts since 1990, i.e the year when controls over the USD were removed aka liberalization, enthusiasts of Elliot Wave Theory would see that the impulsive third wave is over. The entire impulsive third wave move took 10 years.

The downwave from about 14,000 is the wave A or so we can assume. The next few years will find it difficult to see the same peaks of USD investment in India in absolute terms, irrespective of the value of the Indian rupee versus the USD.

This can only point to a churn as the USD investment sees a 4th wave corrective. Do note that this corrective can go right down to 2,500 level. However, optimistically, it would do a triangular movement.

The scenario thus does not augur well for the Indian economy. It points to the fact that interest in emerging economies would be on the wane or at least muted. To maintain the bull run, the Indian rupee would have to be devalued to allow an export-oriented economy to flourish.

ONGC and Elliot Wave Theory - Rakesh Chandra

Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) states the Alternation Rule as

(1) If Wave Two is a simple correction, expect Wave Four to be a complex correction.
(For ONGC wave 1-2 wave is simple).

(2) Triangles commonly occur as fourth waves.
Note the 4th wave triangnle in chart).

(3) Elliott Wave Triangle designates five sub-waves of a triangle as A, B, C, D and E in sequence.
(Note the triangle labeling).

(4) Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3.
(Now the large wave 3 has downward ward direction, so the thrust direction will be accordingly, downward)

ONGC Stoploss 660 Short below 646.44. Lower target WLT1> 625>> 591>>> 570.