USD Investment in India Has Peaked

If we look at the investment chart of US dollars in absolute amounts since 1990, i.e the year when controls over the USD were removed aka liberalization, enthusiasts of Elliot Wave Theory would see that the impulsive third wave is over. The entire impulsive third wave move took 10 years.

The downwave from about 14,000 is the wave A or so we can assume. The next few years will find it difficult to see the same peaks of USD investment in India in absolute terms, irrespective of the value of the Indian rupee versus the USD.

This can only point to a churn as the USD investment sees a 4th wave corrective. Do note that this corrective can go right down to 2,500 level. However, optimistically, it would do a triangular movement.

The scenario thus does not augur well for the Indian economy. It points to the fact that interest in emerging economies would be on the wane or at least muted. To maintain the bull run, the Indian rupee would have to be devalued to allow an export-oriented economy to flourish.

USD will Define Crude Top - Anil Gandhi

The global equity markets bottom is quite strongly linked to top in crude oil as of now, and crude oil can top out only when US dollar (USD) starts its Bull run again.

Amid talk of a bear run and recession in the US economy, a bull run in USD will move money out of Gold -- for a while considered a safe haven -- and also put a top in crude oil (cheap import of oil in USA). This will be the starting point of stability and the short-term bottom resulting in 2-3 months of uptrend in the equity markets.

I recall how Dow had topped out earliest in October 2007, before rest of world markets had topped out in January, so ideally Dow should bottom out first followed by the rest of the world 's markets. Invest 35 percent of your cash now in frontline stocks. Just 35 percent and not all of it.
and keep adding on more as the uptrend starts and more signals comes in.