Further Caution Advised - AP

This is an inset of an old chart dated February 2008, when the bear market gained full steam. It accelerated with an Island reversal on 6th February. The island reversal gap is between 18312 and 18447. The high today is 18295.4. I have a feeling this rally can end in this zone. Be cautious untill Sensex closes above 18450.

The second image is a bigger picture of that same island reversal and what happened thereafter.
It should be noted that Reliance - the market leader is very weak! Infosys has almost made a double top today at an extremely crucial level.

Singh is King - Will History Repeat Itself - Sainik

This evening while the persistent bulls rejoice and the huge multitude of bears have a sleepless night, my mind goes back to nearly fifteen years ago, to be precise July 28, 1993.

Leading up to the trust vote for the Narasimha Rao's government, everyone was sure that the government would fall and the market was being sold left right and centre. I too was taken in by the bearishness, and had shorted the market.

The sensex bottomed out at around 2100 (yes Sensex 2100), on July 20, 1993. From there it attempted a moderate rally for the next few days, and on July 28, the day of the vote of confidence, the Sensex was flirting thereabouts.

While the obituaries of the government were being written by everyone, Narasimha Rao kept a a poker face and seemed confident, which seemed strange at that point of time. However, he had an ace up his sleeve: the JMM - yes the same Shibu Soren his cronies - had been virtually "kidnapped" and showered with all "gifts" - which included huge amounts of cash and liquor .

When the voting began, the members of the JMM virtually staggered into the house, not knowing which way their seats were. They voted and what a precious vote it was! The government was saved and the Sensex rallied from 2100 levels for the next few weeks to top out at 2800 levels - a gain of nearly 700 points which translates to 35 percent - yes 35 percent.

Now, just imagine what a 35 percent gain would do to the Nifty today. Nifty would have to go to 5600 levels . In 1993, I had covered my shorts, but lost much more than "my shorts" in the process. The lesson had taught me never underestimate a "silent man". The silent man then was Narasimha, but this time it is another lion, "Manmohan.

The only question in our minds should be: Will history repeat itself ?

Sensex 1990-94 and 2004-08 Similar - Anil Gandhi

I have presented a comparison of the economic factors as well as the behavior of Sensex for the years 1990-94 and 2004-08. It is quite astonishing to see the similarities. The Finance Minister then was out current Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh.

Why I Feel It's Not Time to Sell - Sainik

Analysts and fund managers are all asking us to be cautious and the bravest of the brave are asking us to nibble, by putting in around 10-20 percent of capital to work. Technical analysts are going berserk, saying they expect 2600. I read that if Nifty breaks 3800, we go straight to 2600.

But, hey, wait a minute, what is this I am hearing? Were we not being told that the Nifty at 6000 was cheap and one could buy with a 3-year timeframe in mind. All over we would be hearing the most pessimistic downward target of 5000 at worst, or best, depending on whether you were long or short. Today those targets have been halved.

The markets are driven on two pivots: fundamental and technical, i.e money flow. Surely, money was flowing inward at 6000 Nifty and it has reversed at 3900. However, at 12,750 Sensex, the PE for the Sensex would be around 12, with an expected EPS of 1050 for March 2009. Very rarely has the Sensex traded below 12 PE in the past. If we touch 9000, the Sensex would trading at 8 PE, which would be a lifetime first.

It is said that those who forget history are condemned to repeat it. At Sensex 12 PE, you are being asked to sell, and when the PE was more than 25, they were asking you to buy. Think and decide whether you want to believe the analysts or should you be using common sense instead. As they say, common sense is not commonly found.

Good Support at Sensex 13,400-500 - Kailash Pareek

The market fall may have surprised many, but 13400-500 seems to be a good support right now. The market is discounting everything slowly, and there is a strong feeling to just sell everything, isn't it? Well, this is the sign that we may see a pullback of the fall. But, let the market do what it wants.

I see here that many use indicators that shows overbought and oversold conditions. Please note that indicators may stay in oversold zone for several weeks in a bear market and in overbought zone in a bull market.

I will continue to watch the market, and if you have not noticed, this state of the market is exactly the reason why I have not been giving calls.

Sensex Does 13,500 - Kailash Pareek

Sorry, I was out and busy, and should start posting in a day or two. Today the Sensex went around my given target of 13,500. I thought it is right time to update regarding this. Remember, I had said that Sensex may go to 13000. Now that this has been done, I do not see it closing below this. If Sensex goes there, it would be a good idea to buy scrips mentioned below for decent return in mid to long run.

Buy RCOM, JPHYDRO, GMRINFRA.

In the meantime, if the market goes up, there will be some selling pressure, so, please do not be stick at higher level. For today this is all. Should something interesting come up, I will post tonight or tomorrow morning.

Sensex Today - Downtrend On, Relief Possible - Santosh Gundecha

For the Sensex, 14215 is first retracement level from the start of uptrend from Sensex 2904 to 21206. It can take support at 14215-14000-13387. The down trend is on, though as market is in oversold zone, we could see some relief rally after gap-down open today.

Sensex for June 11 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian markets succumbed to the red. It made a new low after opening on a weak note. The global cues were weak and hence mayhem followed in the Indian markets, as selling pressure became visible across the board in all sectors. Pharma was the exception though. The Sensex took support around 14677 with good volume.

For the Nifty, if it sustains 4460-4480, then a test of 4521 -4537 is expected. On the lower side 4370 will act as support zone. The 2.30 factor will be important tomorrow.

When a Pullback is Expected - Anil Desai

Gapdown opening and subsequent lower closing suggests Sensex is in strong bear hands. However, the pullback rally is expected at aroun spot 15775 (Nifty 4749) or 15330 (Nifty 4610). Take caution while tading.