Nifty Update for August 4

Here's the complete weekly movement of the Nifty (spot) since it moved down 6630 level. What did it do? A steady downward trend, and bouncing up and down a nice steep slope. I had said that August 1 was a critical day because we have once again kissed the top trendline.

All cylinders firing, Nifty needs to crack this downward trendline, and move up to 4530, before 4880 can be achieved. Most of us are in favor of the bull case, for a long time. In fact if you read some of Sainik's amazing posts, you will realize how prophetic his words have been.

For now, let us - if you are a bull - watch the crack of 4530, and then take it from there. One friend believes that this could be taken out in the gap up of Monday. Should this happen, may be the Rain Gods may shine on traders - even if not on the country.

A Day in the Life - Nifty Future August 1

Overnight the Dow had lost some 200 points, the solar eclipse keeping astrology followers forlorn, the mood was decidedly bearish, after traders woke up to a -70 Singapore Nifty future. Watching the Singapore Nifty future has become a kind of morning ritual for Indian traders and today was no different. As said earlier, today was expected to be a deciding factor in the Nifty and its future. Some consolidation and then a decisive move.

Lo and behold, a gap down, and a crack of 4275, made me think that the trendline was broken and we would be heading for the bearish case. It is then AP said that 4235 was a sort of a gap fill and could be a good support. It could be a time to go long.

Nifty future unfolded itself at the bottom with a higher low, and from then onward we just had a five wave motive wave on the 5-minute chart. I have said that 4440 was an important point. This is because somewhere here, the downtrend from the 6600 tops can be cracked and would be the first sign of some recovery for bulls.

All in all, the day was one massive bull play. Shorts were covered and new shorts were 'raped' as some of my friends like to describe it. Every singe bull investment was paying off. There were no major retracements and one had to just take a bull position and rake in the moolah.

Monday appears to have similar overtones. We have a down Dow and Nasdaq, and conditions appear mildly bearish. May be some refraction from the overzealous passion of August 1. Nonetheless, if 4530 is cracked up, we seem to be getting to 4880.

Punj Lloyd - Hot Call - Inder Bhatia

Hot Call: Buy PUNJLLOYD above 275 TGT 281>289 STOPLOSS 271.

IDFC - Classic Breakout - Inder Bhatia

SHORT-TERM: Buy IDFC at 93.70 TGT 97>103; STOPLOSS 91.

Dow Jones Tonight for Aug 1 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,455 and support is 11,250.

S1 11,350; S2 11,300; S3 11,250; and R1 11,400; R2 11,450; R3 11,520.

Above 11,455 Dow is positive and below 11,350 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for Aug 1 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4310 and support is 4250.

S1 4310; S2 4280; S3 4250; and R1 4350; R2 4380; R3 4400/4450;

Buy above 4350 and if it breaks 4380 then 4400 - 4450.
Short below 4310 and if it breaks 4280 then 4250 - 4200.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4296;
20DMA 4148;
50DMA 4358;
200DMA 5135.

Nifty Future could See 4900 - Santosh Gundecha

Nifty future is looking good on the charts. If it manages to trade above 4535 for a day or two, we could safely say we can see 4900 in August.

With Crude cooling down and World markets stabilizing, there is a high probability of Nifty future moving up and going toward 4900. On the down side there is a good support at 4110 to 4070.

One can buy at dips with suitable stoploss. I will try to post some Options Strategy at dips, so that the risk is reduced much and one can gain for bigger targets.

Nifty Update for August 1 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian markets opened on a positive note but traded in a narrow zone between 4285 and 4342. The markets saw volatility throughout the day, however managed to close in the green. For the coming session if Nifty is able to cross 4361, we could see more upside toward 4410-4440 levels. Breaking below 4284 we could witness some selling pressure with support zone at 4240-4260 levels.

Nifty Update for August 1

A rather tame expiry day. I have seen some really volatile ones. This was more like some day in the middle of a lazy afternoon. Option writers - read FIs - generally tend to close the Nifty around the strike price that has the maximum number of puts and calls. This time it was 4300, where the puts were sold at Rs 20 and calls Rs 51 yesterday. Today the range was indeed between these two numbers i.e. 4280 and 4351.

Tomorrow is a very important day that would either confirm the bullishness I have expressed or condemn it. The inflation numbers have come in lower at 11.99 percent as opposed to the 12.01 percent touted by CNBC. Nonetheless, inflation was higher than 11.89 percent of last week, and governor Reddy of the RBI has a lot of work on hands. Perhaps why we saw repo rate (0.5 percent) and CRR rate (0.25 percent) hikes yesterday.

Tomorrow, August 1, I expect to see a dip on opening and then follow it up with a bit of consolidation. Somewhere later in the day, the Nifty will make its decisive move for the target 4530 or conversely, downward for 4275. Cracks at today's low of 4275 would break the rising channel trendline and any close below this would mean that we could be heading for 3950, which is the worst case bearish scenario.

The chart is self-explanatory.

July Expiry Target Met - Viral Joshi

Refer to my post of June 30, where I had given the following targets for the Nifty, for the next six months. I had said:

July - 4300;
Aug - 4700;
Sep - 5000;
Oct - 5200;
Nov - 5500;
Dec - 6000.

As visible above, the target for July has been achieved. Now, we should look forward to 4,700 for the months ahead. All the above targets are given on a base of last 4 years calculation of average expiry after a bear run is completed.

Your comments are welcome.

Dow Jones for July 31 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,500 and support is 11,400.

S1 11,550; S2 11,500; S3 11,400; and R1 11,600; R2 11,650; R3 11,700.

Above 11,600 Dow is positive and below 11,550 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 31 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4300 and support is 4250.

S1 4310; S2 4280; S3 4250; and R1 4350; R2 4380; R3 4400/4450;

Buy above 4350 and if it breaks 4380 then 4400 - 4450.
Short below 4310 and if it breaks 4280 then 4250.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4316;
20DMA 4127;
50DMA 4372;
200DMA 5141.

Nifty Update for July 31 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market opened gap-up on global cues and closed near day’s high. We had seen bounces from support level of 4164. I had mentioned that above 4300 Nifty would test 4500 in the coming days. The Nifty now faces resistances near 4380-4410 levels. On the lower side 4260-4186 would act as the support zone.

Weekly Hot Call: INFOSYSTCH now ready to fire.

RDX Call: RNRL heading for 115/121.

Nifty can Dance Saala...to our Tune

Pardon the word in the title, but after all, every kid in India is singing the song that inspires the title. I find it amazing that Nifty is dancing to the few lines drawn on my post July 7, and following the upper and lower levels. The same chart is reproduced again with updated data until July 30.

The Nifty seems to be well on its way to 4740-4750 in August.

Drawing lines on a chart is child's play, ain't it?

Watch Tata Steel in August. It can be bought on any dips with a stop below 575 for a target near 700.

Nifty - Falling Wedge Pattern

One pattern on the Nifty has been playing itself out since the freefall from the tops. This is shown in the image above and is what has the bulls enthused. For the diehard bulls Nifty is heading to 4530-4860-5350.

Is the Nifty is Heading to 4530-4860-5350?

It has been a long and arduous scaling down from the peaks for the bulls, and after being bludgeoned yesterday, today's rise was a welcome. Nifty opened around yesterday's close of 4190, and shot up about 70 points. Subsequently remaining almost throughout the day in extremely bullish territory, notched a day's high of 4327, before closing at around 4315.

The day is what candlestick practitioners would call a Bullish Engulfing. This has also closed all the down gaps, thus negating the cluster Island reversal that had raised its fearsome head.

However, an interesting scenario awaits traders, which may hold a lot of promise for the bulls. Even since the collapse from 6000 levels, and the first rise to 5300 levels, we have been following a downward parallel channel, toggling between the top and bottom limits of this channel. The last time the Nifty kissed the boundaries, it had formed a double top at 5160, from where it viciously slipped down to 3790, which was the lower boundary of the parallel channel.

It is from 3790 that it gets very interesting.

For one, we have a rise to 4530 and then a subsequent gapdown to 4190 yesterday. This appears to be either an W1 rise and an assumption that the W2 wave got over yesterday. Today's wave could be the start of a W3 and whether it actually is a W3 and not a C wave, would be proved tomorrow or in a few days.

If this is indeed a W3, we would be approaching 4880, a point at which the Nifty would crack its parallel down channel, and rise out of it, indicating a bullish scenario for the whole of August. If this is a C wave corrective, the we would find it difficult to proceed beyond 4530, and should return downward to kiss the lower boundary of the parallel channel, which could be around 3800 and lower levels. It is this case, that most analysts have been focusing on, and which has been doing the rounds on various forums and channels.

There is a reason to feel optimistic for at least until September 19. For one, crude prices have started to tame, and unless some unknown reason crops up, technically it looks like crude is heading downward for some months.

Dow Jones Tonight for July 30 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,320 and support is 11,250.

S1 11,350; S2 11,320; S3 11,250; and R1 11,400; R2 11,450; R3 11,520.

Above 11,400 Dow is positive and below 11,350 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 30 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4200 and support is 4150.

S1 4180; S2 4165; S3 4150; and R1 4200; R2 4250; R3 4280/4320;

Buy above 4200 and if it breaks 4250 then 4280 - 4320.
Short below 4180 and if it breaks 4165 then 4150.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4349;
20DMA 4116;
50DMA 4388;
200DMA 5147.

Seventy Thousand to Rs 55 Lakh - The Chaoist

It was August 2007 and I had been trading for 2 years by then, working hard, learning everything I found on the markets, but I had still had no rewards. In fact, I had just Rs 70,000 left in my trading account. I could do all kinds of technical analysis, build trading systems, etc., but it was not leading me to profits and success in trading.

I had sacrificed my college education, so that I could be successful trading, but here I was, down to my last few thousands. I decided that if I lost this Rs 70,000, I would try and make a living selling trading systems and by giving tips to other traders.

However, come August 2007, everything changed. I suddenly started to make money. The Rs 70,000 I was down to, now started growing exponentially, until it reached what is now Rs 55 lakh - yes Rs 55 lakh!

So, what had changed suddenly?

I have no precise answer. I even wondered how a 21-year old like me, without college education, and who was perhaps in the middle of the trading curve, was able to make so much money, while there were so many more people with much more knowledge, still struggling in the market? My young mind was suddenly filled with many questions?

Was trading a game of technicals? What separates a winning trader from a losing trader? Was my journey from Rs 70,000 to Rs 55 lakh merely a product of luck? There are many questions to which I need to find the answers, but I decided to share the few reasons that I think lead to my success in trading in last one year:

1. I cannot deny the fact that I was lucky. Life is unfair - this is a fact. When I had Rs 70,000 at the beginning of August 2007, a few losing trades could have wiped out all my money. So at that time I was lucky enough to survive despite being undercapitalized. However, I think later on, after these 1-2 months it was not just pure luck that brought me to Rs 55 lakh.

2. I am believer of the Van Tharpe trading model trading, which says: Trading is 10 percent technicals, 40 percent psychology and 50 percent risk management. I concentrated on the last two things and it paid off. To manage risk, I was trading only intraday, and I never traded overnight positions. This may sound contradictory to the many sermons one receives on how it is so terrible to being an intraday trader.

3. My sole policy was to survive first and then make money. If you are surviving in markets and losing small, you will have time when you are favored by luck and you will make it big.

4. A trader without risk management is like a nude girl in a boy's hostel. If you are using leverage, you should either be hedging your positions or you should not carry overnight positions. Otherwise it is just a matter of time when a big gapup or gapdown will wipe you out.

5. The old classical things we need to fight are fear, greed, hope and bias. Bias is ignored by many but it can cause serious problems.

6. Becoming successful trader is a process. It is like any sport, which you learn the basic rules but then develop your own style. Let us say cricket - each batsman (or bowler) has his own style, which is unique to him. You cannot fully copy anyone, but you can learn from others and develop your own technique of playing in markets, based on your strengths.

7. There are unlimited number of ways you can make money in the markets and unlimited number of ways you can lose.

8. Supports and resistances are for making bulls and bears hope. If you use technicals and want to become a sound technical trader, then I would advise to go for automatic system trading. For others always remember not to use supports and resistances for hoping in the markets.

9. Trading is very simple but it is not easy.

10. Keep your losses small and let your profits run. You have read that in many places but this holds true, so implement it practically.

11. Remember the worst mistakes are made at the best times and best of the trades are made at the worst times.

11. Feel free to short sell. Short selling is a great way to make fast money.

12. Always be prepared for the worst, and and when you are feeling stuck, remember these lines: "The further you run from your sins, the more exhausted you are when they catch up to you. And they do".

13. There are no shortcuts. You have to go through learning the process of trading.

14. If you did well paper trading, it is not necessary you will do well in real-time trading. It has the same difference as in batting at Net practice and batting under pressure on the field.

Nifty Update for July 30 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian markets opened gap-down reacting to RBI's hiking repo and CRR rates. By close the index was negative 142 points.

For the coming session we can expect some bounces as we had touched the 50 percent retracement of the total move from 3790 to 4540. A break below 4164 would take the market to 4097. However, if we cross above 4300, we could touch 4500.

Nifty Future for July 29 - Rakesh Chandra

Two days ago I had expressed a view on the Astronomy cycle. Mercury (bad boy) and Sun were coming on screen (from July 28-August 1). This is a clear sign of volatility which is very high on the cards.

On one higher degree, the current up move from 3800 is a corrective development to the earlier larger fall from 4550, which is bound to consume more time than the time consumed the rising leg. Hence, do not expect an easygoing with this Up leg. Yesterday Monday's session was choppy and range bound and during market hour .

I had given a message that we have a triple top formation on 5-minute charts on Nifty future, around the weekly bullish level of 4357. We are safe only above this level. This triple top level will now act as resistance for the market.

Dow Jones Tonight for July 29 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,180 and support is 11,000.

S1 11,120; S2 11,100; S3 11,000; and R1 11,180; R2 11,250; R3 11,320.

Above 11,180 Dow is positive and below 11,120 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 29 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4342 and support is 4200.

S1 4310; S2 4280; S3 4250; and R1 4335; R2 4350; R3 4380/4420;

Buy above 4342 and if it breaks 4380 then 4400 - 4420.
Short below 4300 and if it breaks 4280 then 4250.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4359;
20DMA 4101;
50DMA 4406;
200DMA 5153.

Nifty Update for July 29 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed on green zone . Market opened on flat note and trade in narrow range but managed to close in green .For coming session we can see some sideway movements on the lower side 4260-4197 will act support zone on the other side 4400-4500 will act resistances zone . We can see stock specific action.

HOT BUY: Rolta above 301 TGT 309>313; Stoploss 295.

Gold Weekly July 28-Aug 1 - Rakesh Chandra

Gold has obeyed all the levels strictly. This week, gold would break in any one direction and head further in that direction.

For the upside:

Upwave (4-5) WUT3: 985;
Upwave (2-3) WUT2: 971;
Upwave (0-1) WUT1: 948.

Price is bullish above 934.12 and price is bearish below 925.38.

Down wave (0-1) WLT1: 911;
Down wave (2-3) WLT2: 888;
Down wave (4-5) WLT3: 874.

Dow Jones Weekly for July 28-Aug 1 - Rakesh Chandra

Dow Jones weekly targets are as follows:

Upwave (4-5) WUT3:11,657;
Upwave (2-3) WUT2: 11,567;
UPWAVE(0-1) WUT1: --11,423

Price is bullish above 11,334.47 and price is bearish below 11,279.52;

Down wave (0-1) WLT1: 11,191;
Dow wave (2-3) WLT2: 11,047;
Down wave (4-5) WLT3: 10,950.

Nifty Future Weekly July 28-Aug 1 - Rakesh Chandra

Nifty future will follow the following trend:

Price is bullish above 4356.33.

Upwave (2-3) WUT2: 4,643;
Upwave (0-1) WUT1: 4,466;

Price is bearish below 4228.67.

Down wave (0-1) WLT1: 4,179;
Down wave (2-3) WLT2: 4,002;
Down wave (4-5) WLT3: 3,892.

Dow Jones for July 28 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,380 and support is 11,300.

S1 11,350; S2 11,320; S3 11,300; and R1 11,380; R2 11,425; R3 11,450/11,500.

Above 11,380 Dow is positive and below 11,350 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 28 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4350 and support is 4250.

S1 4310; S2 4280; S3 4250; and R1 4335; R2 4350; R3 4380/4420;

Buy above 4350 and if it breaks 4380 then 4400 - 4420.
Short below 4310 and if it breaks 4280 then 4250.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4324;
20DMA 4087;
50DMA 4423;
200DMA 5158.

Nag Fertilizer - Hot Stock- Santosh Gundecha

Nagarjuna Fertilizer is looking good on chart. Above 40 it can show 42-45 within next couple of days.

Trade: Buy Nag. Fert. in Delivery or Futures Above 40 with sl of 38 for targets of 42 >>45.

Hot Stocks for Week July 28-Aug 1 - Inder Bhatia

Buy INFOSYS above 1589 TGT 1620>1652 Stoploss 1531.

BUY NEYVELLILIG above 122 TGT 127>135 Stoploss 118.

Buy RANBAXY above 485 TGT 504>515 Stoploss 474.

Nifty Weekly Update for July 28-Aug 1 - Inder Bhatia

Hourly Chart: The Indian market closed on a red note. The markets reacted to global cues and opened on a weak note, trading in the negative zone for the session. On Friday, I had said that a gap remains unfilled at around 4260, so it is likely that we could fill that gap. We could see some more downsides toward 4260-4200 levels before any upside is seen. Nifty would face resistance around 4459-4500 zone.

Daily Chart: Last week the Nifty closed with the gain of 5.37 percent. Nifty has tested the 4350-4500 levels and has reacted from. On daily chart Nifty has halted the lower-top lower-bottom formation and we are now making a higher top and higher bottom. The higher bottom could be 4240 or 4165 as show. A close below 4307 can take the Nifty to 4192-4076 levels, however if the Nifty is able to close above 4425, we could see 4543-4659.

Weekly: As pointed out, that bears are losing control and Nifty has formed a Hammer pattern, we have subsequently seen a good 5 percent move in the Nifty. The new range for the Nifty is 4500-4000. For coming week there are crucial announcements from the RBI on July 29, so we need to have a close watch on the monetary policy.