Startling Oil Spill on NSE - Exclusive - AP

Humpty Dumpty (bulls) sat on a wall; Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.

The battle on the edge of the cliff was clearly won by the bears yesterday, and the bulls gave up without a fight. This, in a nutshell, is the story of what happened yesterday. But, there seems to be more than meets the eye: All the TV channels and business newspapers say the Nifty fell by 78.9 points to close at 4946.55, but what you cannot see, and only chartists can decipher, are the market internals.


I am presenting a startling piece of information below, revealed only on Bhoomitrader, and this pertains to one of the topmost stocks in terms of Nifty weightage: ONGC.

• Traded volumes on ONGC yesterday were the 3rd highest ever in its history;
• Volumes were the highest since April 27, 2006;
• 86,12,528 shares were traded in ONGC yesterday, way above average daily volumes;
• Turnover in ONGC alone accounted for Rs 778 crore in NSE cash segment;
• Volumes in ONGC were 2301% above the 5-day average of 3,58,767.

This is not all. Out of the 86,12,528 shares traded in ONGC yesterday, 76 percent of this volume was traded in just 2 trades, during the day - first at 12.59 pm 45,15,526 shares (52 percent) and the other at 3.24 pm which saw 20,11,558 (24 percent). These 2 trades alone accounted for a turnover of Rs 600 crore.

In spite of such huge volumes, ONGC fell only from 910 to 900 in the first trade, and then 901.95 to 900, in the second trade. Moreover, there was hardly any change in volumes in ONGC futures, pointing to the fact that there was no corresponding hedging or arbitrage operations.

(Readers are requested to post their views on this amazing volume shocker)

Back to Markets

Coming back to our markets, what now, after the fall from the edge of the cliff? Interpreting a chart is like figuring the optical illusions that one often receives in email. You see some concrete facts, and then leave the others to your imagination skills.

I can see 2 scenarios, as mentioned on the chart. Nifty can take support either at 4910-4915, or finally at 4800-4810. If 4800 does not hold (in my view, quite unlikely), then we might be going straight towards 4470-4200. The bullish view is that if 4910 holds, we could see a good bull run, which if 5200 is crossed, could go all the way up to 5925. Such an expectation should be for a period of weeks, and not days, as some of our trading friends tend to expect.

One may start buying Hindustan Unilever, with a stop loss of 225, for a good move in the next couple of weeks.

Why I Think Nifty Target is 4685

There's a huge H&S that has formed on Nifty on the hourly charts. Now, many may not accept this as a classical H&S, due to the shape, but I think it can be taken as a formation. The left shoulder is clear, but we have a sort of contortion on the head. The right shoulder may be extremely weak, due to the conditions in the US markets at this time. Monday, any rise, will be shorted immediately and if we break the neckline, this H&S would get activated. The size of the head is about 300 points, and hence we could consider this as the target for the downside.

All of this is subject to two points: One, that this is a valid H&S, and two, that the neckline is broken to the downside. All the while, keep an eye on the volumes.

Nifty Triangle Live - May 23 - Danger for Bulls?

Nifty Spot for May 23 - Tanmoy Ghosh

Nifty Spot is positive above 5068.25 and negative below 5051.50 . The upper target for Nifty is

5095.30/5122.30and strong resistance at 5122.30. The lower target is 4984.65 / 4957.20. There is a strong support at 4967.9.

Nifty Spot - Symmetrical Triangle

A picture perfect symmetrical triangle formation on Nifty Spot - an upward breakout in the offing. Will it or won't it? Only time would be able to tell.

Nifty Update for May 22 - Make or Break Day - Inder Bhatia

HOURLY CHART: The Indian markets closed in the deep red zone. The markets opened on weak note, due to unfavorable global cues. After a gap-down opening, the market was not able to recover, and closed near days lows. For the coming session, 4986 is a strong 200 SMA support. The Nifty was trading near lower trend channel if break more weakness can seen .we can see 2.30 PM factor will crucial for recovery so you can say. It's a make-or-break day.

HOT STOCK: RELCAPITAL

KS Oils - Ascending Triangle - Anil Desai

KS Oils has formed the ascending triangle formation - trend continuation pattern. Buy only on breakout at around 82.50, for a target of 95 > 100. (CMP 78.15).

Battle on the Edge of the Cliff - Thriller - Abhijit Phatak

So, after 2 weak days, the bears have sharpened their knives and are ready to go for the kill, or are they? Can we expect the 200-HMAgic work again?

The market is precariously poised and is on the edge of a cliff, below which lies a deep valley, and then the sheer force of unwinding will carry the bulls into the pits (that's what 'tips' become finally!). The low of 5000-5002 in Nifty future was touched on 4 occasions today and there is no further room to slip.

The bulls have their tasks clearly cut out for them. Firstly, they have to take the market up right from the word go, tomorrow, without breaking today's close and definitely not today's lows - a fifth attempt to protect that level will most probably fail.

The indices have to be taken far up above this level of the cliff till 11.30 am. This will ensure that they have some cushion to absorb any shock that the weekly inflation figure might have around 12 noon. If till 12.30 pm the bulls manage to control the Cliff level, then the bears will be cornered and the indices will have only one way to go: Up!

The first few minutes tomorrow are of utmost importance. So, stay glued to your computer terminals or in your broker dealing rooms, and enjoy the Battle on the Edge of the Cliff.

If 5000 level breaks, we have to see how many bulls stay alive to fight the battle another day. More about that over the weekend.

Stock Update for May 23 - Kailash Pareek

Today HINDOILEXP did well, even if you bought at 156.75, there was run of Rs 3. APTECH did not trigger for the safe trader, but if you have bought at opening, chances are that you sold at a minimal profit.

For tomorrow, KSOIL is looking good. See the positive divergence on the charts? It closed at the day's high today. There is trader interest in it, and it is a must for the next few weeks.

Nifty Spot for May 22 - Tanmoy Ghosh

Nifty spot would be positive only above 5123.45, with an upper target of 5137/5145/ 5167/ 5181.
If it sustains above 5167, which is a strong resistance, then we could see 5202/ 5210/ 5222 max.
Below 5111, we will be negative and the lower target would 5043, which would be a strong support.

STOCKS TO WATCH: ISPAT, M&M.

TVS Motors Short-Term - Anil Desai

The entry in to this stock is well supported by MACD and Stochastics, with a short-term target of over 55 and SL at 37. Add more around 47.

Nifty Update for May 22 - Ready for Move - Inder Bhatia

DAILY CHART: The Indian market closed in the green zone. The market made a smart recovery from the 200-day EMA as shown in chart . Nifty is still in channel, but in coming session if Nifty crosses 5140, it can test 5170-5220. On the lower side, 5040 will be a strong support zone.

Stocks Update for May 22 - Kailash Pareek

HDIL was given yesterday at 821 with target of 868. Today it made high of 867.95 and closed around 811-12. The fall was not expected, but the ratio of bonus 2:7 was the reason. Anyway, I hold my words. Hope you all enjoyed.

HINDOILEXP: The stock was sideways from sometime. MACD was in sell but has now turned, and also volumes have spiked. This suggests the stock is ready for a move. ADX is also evidence of support for my thought. Hoping for some good, really very good run. Enjoy. Although, you do not need to wait, but if u still want to be careful, buy above 156.75.

APTECH: Look at the chart. I have circled the perfect combination. You can buy anytime, as I always say, but if you are more careful, buy above 265.50.

P.S: Okay, I have got just 21 votes till now. It looks like most of you are busy and cannot vote. Please do take some time off and vote for me.

Nifty Update for May 22 - Rakesh Chandra

As mentioned in weekly report, we started our ascent from around Nifty 4915. Counting from here, Nifty is now slated for a 3-4 down wave, on hourly scale. Once Nifty completes the 3-4 down wave, we can look forward to a 4-5 upmove. Monday and Tuesday's fall was on the 4th down wave path. Today, Nifty's recovery is a possible 4-5 upwave on hourly scale. The possible target for this move is 5200-5250. At this point, our wave cylce will be complete again, and market will go on a down cycle. My advice is to try and exit from profitable positions at this level.

June 3-17 is not favorable. For this, go through my Nifty Advance view. There is a possibility of a bull truncation, as we see a EOD sell signal, and hence we are progressing in the direction of this sell signal.

Dow Jones Tonight for May 21 - Viral Joshi

Pivot: 12,860 and Support: 12,720;

S1 12,820; S2 12,780; S3 12,720; and R1 12,860; R2 12,880; R3 12,955;

Above Dow is 12,860 positive;
Below Down is 12,780 negative.

Nifty Future for May 21 - Viral Joshi

Pivot : 5100; Support : 4950;

S1 5100/5050; S2 5000; S3 4950; and R1 5110; R2 5150; R3 5220;

Nifty Future
Buy above 5110 and if breaks 5150 then 5180-5220;
Short below 5100 and if breaks 5050 then 5000-4950;

DMA :

5DMA 5078;
10DMA 5053;
20DMA 5009;
50DMA 5173;
200DMA 5014;

From above 5014 acts as a big support for the day.

Suggest that after gap down, Nifty future can recover nicely today and even on Friday. Opening is expected to be gap up on Friday. So today use the dip for buying.

Stocks to Watch for Friday, i. e. Buy today at closing price: BHEL, TITAN, ACC, M&M, MARUTI

Nifty Update for May 21 - Inder Bhatia

HOURLY CHART: The Indian markets closed in the deep-red zone. The markets opened on a weak note, taking the gobal cues, and continued to slide to lower levels and breaking our weekly key level of 5080, although it managed to close above it . If Nifty breaks 5060, it can test 5020- 5000 zone; and on the upper side, 5140-5177 will act as a strong resistance zone.

HOT STOCKS: RPOWER, ADLABS;

Nifty Spot for May 21 - Tanmoy Ghosh

Nifty is positive above 5129.30 and negative below 5115.80.

Lower target is 5062 / 5035, but Strong Support @ 5048;
Upper target is 5143 / 5151 /5160 / 5173 / 5188;

If Nifty sustains above 5173 , then upper target is 5209 / 5229.

Dow Jones Weekly for May 19-23 - Rakesh Chandra

On an EOD basis, Dow Jones is going to qualify an extended 3rd wave on an EOD basis. A corrective move 3-4 is on cards.

Pivot, lower target and upper targets are valid for the current week only.

UPWAVE (4-5) T3 :13,262;
UPWAVE (2-3) T2 : 13,190;
UPWAVE (0-1) T1: 13,074;

Price is bullish above weekly pivot point of 13,002.16;
Price is bearish below weekly pivot point of 12,957.84;

DOWN WAVE (0-1) LT1 : 12,886;
DOWN WAVE (2-3) LT2 : 12,770;
DOWN WAVE (4-5) LT3 : 12,698.

Stock Picks for May 21 - Kailash Pareek

Before calls let me ask you one thing: Did you enjoy HDIL? If yes, then, please vote for me. Right side a bit below you will see. Hope you will not ignore my request.

GSPL - I will just point you to one thing. Look the buy arrow in the past and then the movement of the stock. Now, look at my favorite setup of MACD and ADX. I do not have to say anything else.

TATACHEM - Buy above 393 if you want a very safe play, else you can enter when market becomes positive.

Dow Jones Tonight for May 20 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 13,060; and support: 12,955;

S1 13,000; S2 12,955; S3 12,880; and R1 13,060; R2 13,080; R3 13,120;

Above 13,060 Dow is positive.

Nifty Future for May 20 - Viral Joshi

Pivot : 5142; Support : 5100;

S1 5142; S2 5120; S3 5100; and R1 5150; R2 5180; R3 5220/5250;

Nifty Future
Buy above 5150; if it breaks 5180 then 5220 - 5250;
Short below 5142; and if breaks 5120 then 5100 - 5080;

Nifty Weekly Update for May 19-23 - Inder Bhatia

NIFTY HOURLY:The Indian market closed on green zone breakout from “W” pattern which mention on May-15 newsletter. Nifty target is 5160-5178. The Nifty had touched 5167 and closed at 5151. We could see some profit booking near the 5200-5259 zone . May 22-24 would act as very volatile and choppy day, according to time cluster.

DAILY: Last week the Nifty gained 3.5 percent and bounced from lower channels, to close in the 5151 area. As Nifty is making higher highs and higher lows from 4448, it will face strong resistance near 5340-5400 zone, where the yellow trend line is drawn. The coming week Nifty will face resistance near previous top at 5250-5298. If the Nifty closes above 5160, it could test 5239-5300, and if closes below 5081, it can test lower levels of 5037-4994. For this week, 5108 is the key level.

WEEKLY CHART:- On the weekly charts, we are still range bound with 4900 lower level and 5400 upper strong resistance.

Rapid Action Stocks for May 19-23 - Inder Bhatia

MARUTI: Buy above 824 T1 835; T2 841; T3 905; Stoploss 812.

BONGAIGAON: Buy 61.50; T1 66; T2 73; T3 81 Stoploss 58;
Stocks to watch: HDIL and JPASSOCIAT.

Double Whammy for Bears - Abhijit Phatak

A bounce from the 200-HMA typically gives a 10-15 percent run, which gives a Nifty target in the region of 5300+. Added to this pattern is the highly bullish W pattern which also gives a fairly smooth run. So, what do we have then: A double WH(200 hma) ammy for Bears?

Climb a WALL of WORRY and slide down the SLOPE of HOPE. This is precisely what stock markets around the world, including our very own, have been doi ng. The first warning signal is when this 'worry' turns in to belief that the bull run is here to stay. This is when the first strong hands start getting out, and also the strong bears start going short. Before the poor retail investors realize, the climb has reached the end and the slide has already started.

At this point, 'hope' creeps in to the minds of the poor retail investors, who start hoping the market would begin climbing again. Alas, the market has no mercy and the poor retail guys have no choice but to convert their 'hope' in to 'prayers' and BTST (buy-today-sell-tomorrow)'s into long-term deliveries.

However, for now, as long as there exists worry all around us, enjoy the ride. There will be enough indications on charts which will give a hint of change in direction, whenever it happens. There is no point in 'anticipating' a change in trend and taking action in advance.

Of course, there is no pattern that is without a chance of failure, hence, it is imperative that traders have a proper stop-loss in place. Proper is the key word here, for we have many traders who always complain that their stop-loss gets triggered and the stock moves up, which only implies, was not a 'proper' stop loss.

Some trading ideas for next week, which is shortened to only 4 days; one of which is already shown on the chart. Other trading ideas are IFCI, RPL, RPower, Reliance, Tatasteel, Ispat and many more.

Enjoy the ride, with your safety belt (stop loss) in place.

H&S in British Housing Market - Eclectic Investor

When Eclectic Investor spoke in February 2008 of the paanwala top in the Indian housing market, many scoffed. However April 8, 2008, the the Economist has said that the party is over in the British housing market. There are views being propounded that the real-estate bust is slowly moving eastward from US, to UK, and now to Middle East, India and China.However, have a look at the picture. Technical traders would recognized a very familiar pattern.

Nifty Future for May 19-23 - Rakesh Chandra

The Nifty intermediate momentum has turned upward. We are currntly trading the 2-3 up wave on the hourly scale. We need an extended 3rd or 3-4 wave consolidation and then a 4-5 upwave to complete the cycle.

The following is for current week only:

The upper targets are:

Upwave (4-5) UT3 : --5,373;
Upwave (2-3) UT2 : --5,315;
Upwave (0-1) UT1: --5,222;

Price is bullish above weekly pivot point 5,165.

Price is bearish below weekly pivot point 5,128.17);

Lower target down wave:

Downwave (0-1) LT1 : 5,070;
Downwave (2-3) LT2 : 4,977;
Downwave (4-5) LT3 : 4,919;

Intraday bullish level 5,150);
Intraday bearish level 5,141.06).

Weekly Market Updates for May 19-23 - Tanmoy Ghosh

The Nifty Spot gained 185.30 points last week, which is very bullish for the market. If this sustains above the 5160 level, then T1 is 5201, and above this 5216 and 5229.
There will however be strong resistance 5176 and 5191. Below 5150, Nifty will be weak with downside targets as 5104-5094.

As you all have seen, Nifty turned on my prediction of April 17, when everybody was saying that the market would go down. Now again I am saying that the trend reversal dats would be May 22, 2008, adding or subtracting 1 day. Even if the market comes down, it will be a temporary correction.

Stocks to watch are MARUTI \ IFCI \ RAJESHEXPO and M&M.

Good luck.

Weekly Updates for May 19-23 - Kailash Pareek

HDIL - My views for this stock remain the same. Buy above 821 for the 1st tgt of 868. After closing above 873 will give more room to move.

BANKINDIA - Look the last two white candles and volume bar. It suggests that there is good interest in the stock. There is also an inverse head and shoulder forming, which should break out Tuesday. The ADX is also below both DI's and now turning up - a setup I like the most.The stock is a good buy above 366 for T1 - 385 and T2 - 405.

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