NF for the Week July 21-25 - Rakesh Chandra

Since the last two weeks, I have been maintaining my view that 3800 is a strong support. I also said that we are in the last leg of selling, and any decline is a buying opportunity. Market has made a double bottom around 3800 and we are again moving to the upside. The broader market will continue to move to the upside in the coming days. Strictly use the levels mentioned , for trading. The pivot, lower targets and upper targets are valid for the current week only.

Upwave (4-5) UT3 : 4,377;
Upwave (2-3) UT2 : 4,294;
Upwave (0-1) UT1: 4,161;

Price is bullish above weekly pivot point of 4,079.37.
Price is bearish below weekly pivot point of 4028.37.

Down wave (0-1) LT1: 3,947;
Down wave (2-3) LT2: 3,814;
Down wave (4-5) LT3: 3,731.

The Bulls Win the Confidence Vote - Sainik

On Thursday, July 3, my trader friends were nervous when the Nifty futures closed at 3870. To cheer them up, I bet the Nifty futures would go up 100 points the next day. The caveat was that if I won the bet they would give a part of their gains to charity, and they agreed laughing uncharitably. Friday came, and voila, the Nifty futures crossed 3970 intraday.

Well, the Gods were kind to me and the charities. Encouraged by this, I made another prediction that the July-11's Nifty spot would close higher than the previous week (July-4)'s close. Second time lucky, you would say, as the Nify crossed 4000. Then came another prediction, that the Nifty would close higher on July 18. 'Do not test your luck so many times', cautioned my skeptical friends. However, all my indicators were all flashing green and I made my bold prediction.

Friday, the sharks were circling around me, even at noon, with the Nifty futures struggling about 3940 levels. My ardent supporter - my wife - too had given up because the market was "apparently" doing nothing. The day's open, at 3951, was the day's high, volumes were low and the market appeared comatose. While everyone around me was pressing the sell button, my mind went to an old market adage: "Never short a dull market".

How true it turned out to be! What a wonderful sight it was for the bulls, as the market climbed higher and higher, like it was Jack's beanstalk. As the CNBC anchors droned on and on, spewing decidedly "bearish talk", the market closed above last week's close.

With the week wrapped up, this now brings us to the prime question: Now what?

As we enter the "confidence vote" week, with all the talking heads analyzing and re-analyzing the magic number 272, the market has already voted in favor of the bulls.

Technically, the Nifty is at the 20-day moving average (DMA) resistance, about 4100. The Nifty has never crossed the 20-DMA resistance to the upside, which it had broken downward, on May 22, when it was trading above 5000 levels.

For all practical purposes, this resistance is formidable, but the price action in the last couple of weeks suggests that it is still "Advantage Bulls".

Dow Jones for July 21 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,475 and support is 11,300.

S1 11,475; S2 11,380; S3 11,300; and R1 11,500; R2 11,550; R3 11,600.

Above 11,500 Dow is positive and below 11,475 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 21 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4020 and support is 3950.

S1 4020; S2 3980; S3 3950; and R1 4080; R2 4120; R3 4150/4200;

Buy above 4080 and if it breaks 4120 then 4150-4200.
Short below 4020 and if it breaks 3980 then 3950.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 3951;
20DMA 4064;
50DMA 4492;
200DMA 5179.

UPA Winning? - What Charts Say - Santosh Gundecha

It is said that charts speak. We are on the brink of a massive event which is the UPA government's Vote of Confidence in Parliament. Today, Nifty future just broke the Falling Wedge on upside at 4050 levels. It may still be borderline, however we have broken to the upside. The next targets are 4185-4220 and then 4320.

Now, how do we use this chart to learn if the UPA is winning or not. I am not looking at any other view or news. Just trying to read the chart. It is a difficult task but I am using this attempt as a Case Study. If we trade above breakout level of 4050 on Monday and Tuesday , we can safely assume that UPA is winning the vote of confidence.

I know I am making a big statement. All analysts will start saying this after result is declared, but I am sticking my neck out .

The Other View

This you may say contradicts my earlier view but please read between the lines. We are more interested in the markets, and its movement. If we trade above 4050 on Monday and Tuesday, we are surely going up.

Let the UPA win or lose. The scenario is as such: We see a small blip on July 23, people get trapped in shorts, and the market starts to move up. So please be careful if you are shorting after the results are declared.

Please note that all that I have written are merely guesstimates, and my attempt to predict political events on the basis of price action on the charts. The condition here is that the market stays above 4050 for two days.

The last but not least, my favorite subject: Astro views. Let's hope Saturn and Mars are cooling down and helps market.

Dow Jones for July 18 - Viral Joshi

As i said early, if Dow Jones bounces from 11,000 level, then we can see 12,000 level soon and its going toward it.

Pivot is 11,380 and support is 11,250.

S1 11,380; S2 11,300; S3 11,250; and R1 11,450; R2 11,500; R3 11,550.

Above 11,450 Dow is positive and below 11,380 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 18 - Viral Joshi

Market looks in a mood for a rally. The global cues and crude oil are supporting. As I said earlier, if crude oil sustains below $137, we could see $125 level, and it is almost there at $129.

For Nifty future, pivot is 3920 and support is 3800.

S1 3900; S2 3880; S3 3850; and R1 3950; R2 3980; R3 4050/4100;

Buy above 3950 and if it breaks 3980 then 4050-4100.
Short below 3900 and if it breaks 3880 then 3850-3800.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 3943;
20DMA 4077;
50DMA 4512;
200DMA 5183.

Nifty Update for July 18 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the green zone. The market opened gap-up, on positive global cues, but after opening it started losing steam in the first half of the trading session. However, the bulls returned towards the last trading session and the Nifty closed near the day's high. For the coming session Nifty can test 3977-4040 on the lower side, and 3921-3886 will act as a support zone.

HOT STOCK: Buy MARUTI above 594 TGT 607 >615 Stoploss 583.

Gold Monthly View - Rakesh Chandra

Last week I expressed my view on Gold, that it had become bullish. On the weekly scale, Gold is in its 5th up wave. It has behaved the same way. This week, we first went up then in the last 2 days we have a decline, which shows that it is consolidation but still in its bullish range. Any decline is a buying opportunity.

The current values are valid for this monthly only:

UPWAVE (4-5) MUT3: 998;
UPWAVE (2-3) MUT2: 979;
UPWAVE (0-1) MUT1: 949;

Gold is bullish above pivot point 931, and bearish below pivot point 930.

Living to Trade, the Rocky Balboa Way - Sainik

In his landmark book "Trading for a Living", Alexander Elder, the author, talks of visualizing the market as a gang of bulls and bears, who are equally matched in strength, but who try to push each other to the extreme akin to a game of tug-of-war.

At some point of "no return", actually, the "weak" guys become strong. That is the point when the "weak" guys say: "Enough is Enough". The so-called weak guys have been beaten so badly and the other gang is so confident and ready to give the "sucker punch" as it were , when the weak guys in turn get up and fight with renewed vigor and slowly and surely push the other gang back.

I hate to "hunt for the bottom", and have been a contrarian bull for the last fortnight, whenever the Nifty has fallen below 4000, yet, yesterday's price action in the last 45 minutes brought me back memories of June 15, 2006.

Traders would be familiar with the turmoil in our markets beginning May 11, 2006 and the vertical crash of May 22, 2006, followed by relentless selling by FIIs in June 2006, when all the world was selling India. Bulls were battered day in and day out, and every rise was only a "dead cat bounce". On June 13, 2006, the Nifty futures made a low of 2590, going below a psychological support of 2600, and somehow bounced back to close above 2600.

Then June 14 dawned, and the die-hard bulls thought that they had found the bottom,when there was an upward gap opening, yet, once again, the bears took complete charge and pushed the Nifty future to a new low of 2575, in the last 45 minutes, thereby eliminating all the remaining "die-hard and hopeful bulls" - the futures barely managed to close above 2600 for the second consecutive day.

The price action of that day reminds me of what happened yesterday, when the lowest low of 3790 was broken in the last 45 minutes to make a new low of 3775 and the futures struggled to close above 3800 levels.

When I trade, I not only look at "raw numbers" but a variety of indicators, like how those numbers came about, volumes, price action, the kinds of scrips which moved those numbers, the sentiment among analysts, traders, media, etc and finally what my "gut" says.

All these indicators point out to me that its better to be bullish than bearish in this environment. For all those bulls and bears out there, it's worthwhile remembering the quote of the famous boxer, Rocky Balboa: "It ain't about how hard you hit, it's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward, how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done."

Nifty Update for July 17 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the red zone. The market opened on a positive note but was not able to sustain at higher levels. It lost all its gains and was made a new low. For the coming session if the Nifty is able to cross 3868-3920, we can see up till 4000. On the lower side 3750-3700 will act as support zone.

I am a Drug (Ranbaxy) Addict - Sainik

The last couple of days have seen a phenomenon in a particular scrip which should have delighted any self-respecting technical analyst. The phenomenon is called Capitulation, i. e. a stock or index falling and breaking important supports on very high volumes.

The price and volume action in Ranbaxy in the last couple of days would classify as a textbook definition of what capitulation is all about. Typically, the trading volumes in the cash market for this scrip, is around 15-30 lakh, with deliveries being around half of the traded volumes.

On Monday, Ranbaxy clocked volumes of a little over 1 crore shares, with nearly 46 lakh shares, being marked for delivery. Yesterday it surpassed the record, when more than 2.45 crore shares were traded, and of this more than one crore shares were marked for delivery.

While the fall in the last two days can be attributed to fundamentals-and-news-driven factors, however, any self-respecting technical analyst should be concerned only with the price and volume action.

In my humble opinion, Ranbaxy is a good technical buy, with a target of above Rs 500 in the forseeable future. The stoploss would be yesterday's close of Rs 410.

This Claimer: I am long in Ranbaxy yesterday around Rs 415 and have added to my positions at Rs 435 today.

Nifty Future for July 16 - Santosh Gundecha

As written continuously market is undergoing through a very bad phase from various aspects. We breached a big support for Nifty futures at 3810 near close, which we can say still holding as it broke 3810 in the last 5 minutes of close.

Now for today again 3810>>3750>>3700 are supports. On the upside Nifty has many hurdles to cross. Resistances for Nifty future being at 3840>3880>3920.

I will advise traders not to look for shorts at lows. Markets look oversold.

Dow Jones for 16 July - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,000 and support is 10,880.

S1 10,920; S2 10,900; S3 10,880; and R1 11,000; R2 11,050; R3 11,120.

Above 11,000 Dow is positive and below 10,920 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 16 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 3850 and support is 3760.

S1 3800; S2 3785; S3 3760; and R1 3850; R2 3880; R3 3920/3950;

Buy above 3850 and if it breaks 3880 then 3920-3950.
Short below 3820 and if it breaks 3800 then 3785-3760.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4054;
20DMA 4143;
50DMA 4562;
200DMA 5194.

Nifty Update for July 16 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the deep red zone. Market opened gap-down tracking weak cues from the global market. There was no relief in sight for the bulls. The Nifty broke the channel line in the morning and was not able to sustain. It drifted down and made a new low. For the coming session, below 3850, we can see the Nifty drift to 3779-3700. On the other side, 3960 will act as resistance. The market is expected to react more on global cues.

Nifty Future for July 15 - Santosh Gundecha

As written in my report yesterday, Volatility is at its best. Bouts of buying and sudden selling are now being witnessed daily. For July 15, Nifty can take support at 3915>>3870. The resistance for the up move is at 3980 >>4010>>4045 and then at 4090--4100 .

We will open big gap down . This is what I have given in my astro-techno update yesterday. Nobody had expected market to open such a big gap down. I know many who have gone long overnight yesterday. Such behavior should be avoided.

Those who wish to trade Nifty futures can try to buy near supports given above, after the initial gap down. They can books profits at the resistances given or exit when momentum halts. Better use stoplosses and trail a position for maximum benefit.

These are the days of high volatility, so when one initiates a position, it should be closely watched and stops used judiciously without fail.

One can try to buy options in most beaten stocks, like Infosys or Satyam, during dips. Markets have a tendency to overreact. I will try to post some options calls during the day, when possible. Do not forget that stoplosses are important in options too.

Dow Jones for July 15 - Viral Joshi

Dow Jones is near its long-term support of 11,000. If this level is broken, then from this level, a new negative cycle can been seen. If it succeeds in bouncing back, then this is a good sign for bulls, and one can expect Dow to move towards 12,000.

Pivot for Dow is 11,080 and support is 11,000.

S1 11,050; S2 11,020; S3 11,000; and R1 11,080; R2 11,150; R3 11,210.

Above 11,080 Dow is positive and below 11,020 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 15 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4070 and support is 3900.

S1 4010; S2 3980; S3 3950; and R1 4070; R2 4110; R3 4150/4200;

Buy above 4070 and if it breaks 4110 then 4150-4200.
Short below 4010 and if it breaks 3980 then 3950-3900.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4079;
20DMA 4182;
50DMA 4589;
200DMA 5200.

Nifty Update for July 15 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the red zone. Markets saw rangebound movement and it was a volatile trading session. Nifty is hovering in a small band - if it breaks this band, around 4010, it could drift to 3960, i.e. the lower channel trendline.

For the coming session, 4100 will act as a resistance while on the other side, 3960 will act as support zone. On the daily chart, the indices have formed a Doji, which indicates uncertainty.

Nifty Update for Week July 14-18 - Inder Bhatia

Hourly Chart: The Indian market closed on deep red note. The market reacts badly on the 3-Is: Inflation, IIP, Infosys. The market saw a sharp sell off, and at noontime Nifty broke major supports at 4100, to end near 4049 levels. Nifty is trading in the channel, and 3966 will act as strong support zone. If this channel is broken below 3950, it can test the 3850 zone, or we could see some bounces from the 3960 zone.

Daily Chart: Last week Nifty closed with a marginal gain of 0.82 percent. The Nifty opened with a gap-up note on Monday but could not hold the gain. The rally fizzled out on Friday and all gains vanished in a single day. The Nifty is trading in a channel and 3950 will act as strong support zone. Breaking this support zone it can drift to the 3850 zone. For the coming week, closing above 4077, the Nifty can test 4132-4210, and closing below 4044, it can test 3972-3865.

Weekly: We have broken the range, and the new range will be 3848-4400.

Hot Calls for Week July 14-18 - Inder Bhatia

Sell PUNJLLOYD below 207 TGT 201>196 Stoploss 215.


Sell ROLTA below 269 TGT 260>255 Stoploss 274.

Sell JPASSOCIATE below TGT 147>145 Stoploss 158.

Buy LUPIN above 703 TGT 712>720 Stoploss 693.

Do not Short the Open Monday - AP

In spite of the selloff on Friday, nothing much has changed on the chart and the levels that were posted over the last weekend. In fact, Nifty is exactly following the script that was written for it.

If one refers the chart and the levels that were posted on the July 7, it can be seen that Nifty hit the first target mentioned and is retracing now. The first target mentioned was 4190-4200, and Nifty did a freak high at 4215; the traded high was 4203.6. (It cannot get much closer than this on targets)

Now, what next. A gap-down opening on Monday is possible, thanks to the weak IIP numbers, as well as the selloff in US markets. As a matter of fact, Nifty stopped its fall on Friday, exactly filling the gap it had created in the preceding days (see chart). Such gap-filling is not bad at all.

Please do not short at open on Monday.

As long as Nifty does not go below 3930-3950, it has good chances of bouncing back, and one can buy Nifty 4000- or 4100-strike calls, with a stop of 3880 (risk in the option call will be less than Rs 40, whereas reward can be far higher.

I will update this trading position on a regular basis every day.

Happy trading till then.

Time for Contrarians to Walk the Talk - Sainik

When I predicted Friday, July 4, we would see a better closing for the week ended July 11, a few of my friends had smirked at me, what with all the uncertainties swirling around. A week is a long time in politics as well as markets. This weekend too, I am optimistic that we should see better days as we go ahead.

Why am I so hopeful?

Turn the clock back to January, 2008, when fund managers and analysts were united in proclaiming that we were completely decoupled from other markets and Indian markets would continue to see higher highs in 2008. The bull-bear ratio would have been 70-30.

Today I am unable to see a single commentator who is hopeful for the market for the next 6 months. The Internet has caused very rapid dissemination of information, hence every Tom, Dick and Harry is convinced that the world will collapse and India would be leading the way with Sensex targets below 10,000.

The horrendous numbers coming in are not helping the case: inflation, IIP, etc., the question on everyone's mind is: Who will dare to buy? Yet, on Friday the Nifty bounced back nearly 75 points from its low. All of this in spite of both local and foreign institutions joining the selling bandwagon, which is a rarity. This makes me suspect that the latest pack of bears are not strong enough.

Such events bring out the contrarian in me. I am too aware of the fragile nature of the financial markets, yet in my humble opinion, there has never been a better time to be a contrarian and play for about 200 points on the positive side for the Nifty.

This is a low risk play, with the stoploss being in the region of 3800 levels. I am walking the talk, by being long in the Nifty.

Volatile Week Ahead July 14-18 - Santosh Gundecha

Astro View: I had written in one of my earlier article on July 7 that Saturn and Mars are in conjunction at exact degrees on July 11, in astrology sign of LEO, which is the enemy sign of Saturn. As a result, we witnessed a lot of uncertainty, volatility and bearishness. This happened not only in Indian markets but also in US stock markets, Crude, Forex , etc.

I was expecting stability to come slowly by July 15-18, but now I feel we will have to wait till at least until July 22-23. On July 21 there is a debate in Parliament. (A 'debate' means allegations and counter-allegations). On July 22, the government would take the Vote of Confidence. This points to the fact that until July 22, rumors would run overtime.

Technical View: On Friday, the Dow kissed 11,000 mark but managed to close above it. The 11,000 incidentally a good support on Dow.

On the Indian bourses, the Nifty future had 7-week consecutive weekly bearish candles, followed by a weekly candle 'Doji'. A doji signifies indecision. We are still moving in a range , but the range now is growing with rising volatility. One can consider 3800 to 4200 as the range for Nifty futures. However, we have good support at 3810 > 3750 >3700.

On the Daily chart, the Nifty Future had a bearish engulfing candle on Friday, thus eating all the gains of earlier 2 days.

Trading strategy: There is a lot of volatility in markets, however there are some traders who cannot sit without trading. For them, one could trade Options, as Options have limited risk. One strategy would be to buy Nifty calls, when the Nifty plunges toward the lower side of band. Do not forget to use stops here too.