Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Nifty Future for July 16 - Santosh Gundecha

As written continuously market is undergoing through a very bad phase from various aspects. We breached a big support for Nifty futures at 3810 near close, which we can say still holding as it broke 3810 in the last 5 minutes of close.

Now for today again 3810>>3750>>3700 are supports. On the upside Nifty has many hurdles to cross. Resistances for Nifty future being at 3840>3880>3920.

I will advise traders not to look for shorts at lows. Markets look oversold.

Posted by Santosh Gundecha at 9:22 AM

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6 Comments:

nm said...

there are only two sides

One "Market"
Second "Participents"

participents still not recognising that Market is laughing with silent-single word-- "All Yours", on participent.
So nothing is oversold,
instead of having daily changing views its better to have a gut "short" and sleep with stop loss of 4156.

July 16, 2008 at 9:53 AM  
Santosh Gundecha said...

Dear Nandlal, I admire ur so called 'Gut' to give more than 350 points as stoploss. Is is SL or 'Loss'. For the participient its time now, to learn to trade with decipline. Watch the levels given in report and todays market til now.. Soome poor trader would have caught on wrong foot at selling at lows..Market flirting at the given resistance of 3880 .
as of now .Rest all strategy is explained for trading.

July 16, 2008 at 10:36 AM  
nm said...

Dear Santosh,
Dont think im here to criticise any analyst, not at all.
I would like to clarify the points which perhaps confused you.

What a trader like more ?

a) A massive profit with minimum hassale and trade activity.
or
b) Large no. of small-small profit,
with daily trading, taking headache, full time eye burning on terminals, and above all giving handsome brokarage.

Obviously I, you and every trader go for option (a). But that is not so easy to get, it deserve a lot- lot patience, it deserve years of experience. Large profit strategy require large SL at the time of initiation. 4156 was that big SL of 120 points when i initiated short at 4037( i didnt want to disclose any trade, but ....).

So dont think a trader like me and you will stick to initial SL, obviously we'll trail it in our mind.
Im not forcing any one to show "gut" and jump in to trade.
"Lows" and "oversold" are time frame specific terms. They donot have much weighted meanings in market which is falling like 9-pins.Market may remain oversold for unpredictable time span, even their oversold-ness gets completely absorbed after a breif range bound movements and they start falling again--No mercy( Recent example is movement from July 1 to July 10).

So to have in the "Market" side with option (a), be a Smart Active Observer instead of daily Active Trader, Large profit trade points comes often but they dont come daily.

Sorry dear Snatosh if i got too long.

July 17, 2008 at 12:38 AM  
The Trader said...

Dear Mr Santosh Gundecha, I am a big fan and follower of your writing. I have read some commetns and your reply.
I admit that as we were receiving a lot of down targets ranging from 3500 to 2600 for Nifty on TV and from different sources, I was intended to short, thinking I will get good money.
But Thanks to your advice not to short at lows. I would have lost more than 100 points till now. I have seen ur targets too working that day.

I have gone through your earlier write up espacialy Reliance petro range given long back and Head and shoulder target was bang on target.

I missed todays report from you. Have you stopped reports because of such comments?

I will request you to please ignore such comments and continue with your reports daily , which are helpful for trader like us.

July 17, 2008 at 10:18 PM  
Santosh Gundecha said...

Dear Nandlal, I again appreciate ur constuctive suggestion.
1)But I would like to tell you that the report's Title suggest it clearly that it was for a perticular day.
I agree with you and why me, all the trading community want to earn BIGG profit in every trade. But even as u admitted its not possible to get big trade every trade.

2) I do not know whether u are aware or not there are more than 80 % of ppl who trades daily and are happy with 1 to 2 % profit on their futures position which comes to 4-5 % daily on their invested capital.
The daily report is intended for them.
3) One can not know in advance , which tread is going to give big profit and which do not..So one have to have his strategy in place.
4)There are different people with different risk profile and different risk apetite. So we can not force intra players to go for swing /positional trades. One may lose sleep for that.. ( Now pl do not say that' then this is not place for them . As we are none to decide who should do what.)

What we can do it to facilitate thenm in their trade buy giving them some advice.

5) There is no 'unique strategy' that can be said as only correct strategy. Everybody earns money with different methods and differnt positions. Now taking your example - what u have done at 4000 nifty, can not be adviced at 3800 NF.
Those who are comfortable with their trading method can take that trade, else can wait for their turn.
In my whole carrer I have seen everybody runnning for big profits but very few( I actually want to say negligible) actually could acheive it and many had lost money in turn waiting for bigger profit..

I had written here on this blog earlier sighting HNS pattern when nf was above 4000, saying below 4k I am getting 3750 tgt ,so be cautions to trade long below 4k. and U will be happy to read that 3750 nearly completed. So this can be helpful for traders like u , who are basically position traders.

Now take ur case..I have seen many taking a positional trade like u ..say short at 4000 and holding for Big event ahead..But they ask supports and resistances and trade on their positions and hold again their positional trade, there by incresing the profit much more...

But this is their strategy..I can not suggest u or recomend it to u as may be it do not suit with ur trading strategy, else why would a smart trader would have slept instead of earning...

So I think its a matter of everybodys trading strtegy,risk profile/apetite and comfort level , how to trade.We can not force our will not on market nor on ppl.
I know everybody ( including me )want to make killing in one trade only and then go for vacation at calangute beach :) .

So I think all ur doubts are clear regarding my report and we can go on next big things ahead and try to make more money possible.

It was nice to get ur views wishing u happy trading and hoping that u have your backup in place.

July 17, 2008 at 11:41 PM  
nm said...

Thanks very much,
I appreciate your reply.

July 18, 2008 at 12:45 AM  

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