Nifty Future for Week July 7-11 - Rakesh Chandra

As mentioned last week, this was the last leg of selling.

Markets have behaved as expected, first touching the lower target then posting a smart recovery of over 200 points in a single day. This was followed by a consolidation between 4000 and 3800. All of this shows that bulls have started to awaken now, although they have not taken charge completely. .

This week too a similar story would repeat and market volatility is high on the cards. Definitely, this area is the accumulation area for the coming days, and I advise that some buying at lower levels.

The following targets are valid for the current week only.

Upwave (4-5) T3: 4,240;
Upwave (2-3) T2: 4,170;
Upwave (0-1) T1: 4,057.

Price is bullish above 3,986.86;
Price is bearish below 3,943.64.

Downwave (0-1) LT1 : 3,874;
Downwave (2-3) LT2 : 3,760;
Downwave (4-5) LT3 : 3,690.

Don't Short, Just Buy It - Sainik

Yesterday, all the financial channels' "experts" were constantly proclaiming that going forward there is only gloom and doom ahead for India. To buttress their arguments, they cited high oil prices, high inflation, high degree of political uncertainty, high fiscal deficit, high what have you. They were virtually on a "high" with the redoubtable Lata Venkatesh taking the cake -- and the bakery too -- as she scaled the heights of pessimism. They all must have been aghast, when they saw that the market was resilient.

Bhav hee bhagwan hai. This is nothing new. Market always do exactly the opposite of what the consensus is. Who would dare to buy when it is so "obvious" that everything is in bad shape. If you listen to the "experts" , the next best thing to "not buying" is "short selling".

After analysing the market internals, the markets are telling me that indiscriminate shorting is going on. This short interest will provide a floor for the market, at least in the short term. I expect the market to move up in the next few days and next week's close would be better than week's. Some time in the near future , I expect panic buying -- yes panic buying -- to emerge.

This would be the precursor for the next intermediate top. At that point in time, you are likely to see the same Latha Venkatesh and her cohorts exhorting people to go ahead and buy. This then would be the time to short. Until then, do not remain short. Just Buy It!

This Claimer: I continue to hold Nifty long positions for the past one week and have added to them very aggressively during the week.

Why I Feel It's Not Time to Sell - Sainik

Analysts and fund managers are all asking us to be cautious and the bravest of the brave are asking us to nibble, by putting in around 10-20 percent of capital to work. Technical analysts are going berserk, saying they expect 2600. I read that if Nifty breaks 3800, we go straight to 2600.

But, hey, wait a minute, what is this I am hearing? Were we not being told that the Nifty at 6000 was cheap and one could buy with a 3-year timeframe in mind. All over we would be hearing the most pessimistic downward target of 5000 at worst, or best, depending on whether you were long or short. Today those targets have been halved.

The markets are driven on two pivots: fundamental and technical, i.e money flow. Surely, money was flowing inward at 6000 Nifty and it has reversed at 3900. However, at 12,750 Sensex, the PE for the Sensex would be around 12, with an expected EPS of 1050 for March 2009. Very rarely has the Sensex traded below 12 PE in the past. If we touch 9000, the Sensex would trading at 8 PE, which would be a lifetime first.

It is said that those who forget history are condemned to repeat it. At Sensex 12 PE, you are being asked to sell, and when the PE was more than 25, they were asking you to buy. Think and decide whether you want to believe the analysts or should you be using common sense instead. As they say, common sense is not commonly found.

Nifty About to Break Out - Ayesha

Nifty future hourly charts shows that it is ready to break from a resistance line. If it does, we would complete the ugly bottom formation "W" and could see higher levels. The previous candle is a hammer and stoploss for longs would be the low of the previous candle which is 3905.

Nifty Future for July 4 - Santosh Gundecha

The Political drama continues. If it goes in favor of the ruling congress party, Nifty Future can go up and see targets of 3945-3980-4035-4080. However, if it turns unfavorable or if uncertainty prevails, then NF can test 3810 and then 3750. Tomorrow there will be a shock of inflation number too, which may already have been discounted. Let's hope that it does not give us a rude shock like it last week. Despite all the bad news, there is what looks like a silver lining on political front as of now. (Nobody can be sure of politicians and taken them for granted).

Nifty Future for July 4 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 3875 and support is 3850.

S1 3870; S2 3850; S3 3820; and R1 3875; R2 3920; R3 4950/4050.

Buy above 3875 and if it breaks 3920 then 3950-4050.
Short below 3865 and if it breaks 4850 then 3820-3800.

Daily moving average:

5DMA 4019;
20DMA 4347;
50DMA 4736;
200DMA 5221.

Nifty Update for July 4 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the red zone. The market saw a gap-down opening as weak global cues and high oil prices erased all of yesterday's gains. However, on the daily chart it has made inside-day bar, so anything below 3848 would be a weak sign, and this means Nifty will drift down. Crossing above 4107, more upside cannot be ruled out. For coming session, 3848-3735 would act as a support zone, while on the upside 3945-4040 would act as the resistance zone.

Dow Jones Tonight for July 3 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 11,300 and support 11,100.

S1 11,200; S2 11,180; S3 11,150; and R1 11,250; R2 11,300; R3 11,350/11,400.

Above 11,300 Dow is positive and below 11,200 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 3 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 4000 and support 3925.

S1 4050; S2 4020; S3 4000; and R1 4080; R2 4100; R3 4150/4200.

Buy above 4050 and if it breaks 4080 then 4100-4150.
Short below 4020 and if it breaks 4000 then 3980-3950.

Daily moving average:

5DMA 4097;
20DMA 4384;
50DMA 4759;
200DMA 5224.

Nifty Update for July 3 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the green zone. The market saw short covering and a smart rally across the board. As we expected that a relief rally should be there, the same thing happened and we had a good move on Nifty, which bounced back from 3861. The main thing however is whether this rally would fizzle out or will it move further? For coming session, 4177 is a key level to watch. If we cross and close above this, Nifty could test around 4300. On the lower side 4040–3970 would act as strong support zone.

HOT BUY: Buy BHEL above 1439,; TGT 1472 > 1493; Stoploss 1406.

Nifty Makes a Bullish Ugly Bottom - Ayesha

Nifty future 15-min charts and hourly charts show a bullish breakout from a Ugly Bottom formation. It can move approximately 100 points from the breakout region of 3914.

Dow Jones for Tonight July 2 - Viral Joshi

Pivot for Dow Jones is 11,380 and support 11,200.

S1 11,320; S2 11,300; S3 11,200; and R1 11,380; R2 11,400; R3 11,450/11,500.

Above 11,380 Dow is positive and below 11,320 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 2 - Viral Joshi

Pivot is 3875 and support 3750.

S1 3825; S2 3810; S3 3750 and R1 3850; R2 3875; R3 3950.

Buy above 3835 and if it breaks 3875 then 3950.
Short below 3825 and if it breaks 3850 then 3780-3750.

Daily moving average:

5DMA 4128;
20DMA 4409;
50DMA 4778;
200DMA 5226.

Nifty Striking Distance from H&S Target of 3750 - SG

I had earlier posted a chart with the title, Nifty Head and Shoulder, giving a target of 3750. We are within striking distance of this. The link of that chart is given below.
http://bhoomitrader.blogspot.com/2008/06/nf-head-and-shoulder.html
However, it is said that a 'Bear market does not have supports and a bull market has no resistances'. This is holding true this time too.

To add to the woes is the falling international markets, boiling crude prices - which are taking the toll on our economy. On the other side, we have the UPA-Left-SP drama. This political uncertainty will continue till July 15 at least.

Astrologically too, this is the worst time, with Saturn and Mars in conjunction on July 10-11, effect of which will be seen till July 15-16. If I remember correctly, the fall of 2000 bull run also happened during such an astrological position.

Many may be surprised with this post and confused whether this is technical/fundamental or astrological post. Perhaps a bit of everything.

Nifty Update for July 2- Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the deep red zone. Markets opened on higher note but slipped in to the red as day progressed. In the second half there was a bloodbath and Nifty ended in the deep red. Nifty has came to its weekly target of 3861, as show below. Cracking below 3857, it could further test 3600 levels. However, technically Nifty should hold current levels and could even give some bounces or relief rallies.

Here's the chart that was posted earlier, showing a weekly target of 3861 for the Nifty.

Market Close to Long-Term Crossroads - AP

With the markets sliding almost every day, it is now time to sit back and have a broader look at where we are going.

All those who are familiar with candlestick charting methods will be aware of the basic concept of 'higher tops and higher bottoms'. A strong trend is said to be in place when higher tops and higher bottoms are formed on successive candlesticks.

On a 'yearly basis', we have seen exactly this happening ever since this bull run started in 2003. The high of every subsequent year was higher than the previous year and the low of every successive year was also higher than the previous year. This year too, the high made in January was higher than the high in 2007.

What happened after that is known to all. Now, we are precariously close to the low of 2007, which was 3554, and 12316 on BSE Sensitive Index. Today's lows were within striking distance from these lows of 2007.

I am not trying to suggest that the long term bull run is in danger. Not at all. However, it is a well-known fact that a strong trend of higher-tops higher-bottoms is broken when a previous low is breached. When this happens, it usually takes quite a while (a few bars = years, in this case), for the previous high to be crossed.

Thus, if the index goes below 12316 and Nifty below 3554, I do not think we will see the January highs being crossed at least for the next couple of years -- perhaps beyond 2010! It must be mentioned here, that almost two-thirds of the individual stocks have made lows that are lower than those of 2007. Many focus on 52-week lows, which in my view, is misleading.

As far as international markets go, most of the major markets - Dow, Nasdaq, Nikkei, FTSE, have aready gone below their 2007 lows. Thus, the million-dollar question now is whether we can protect 12,316 on the Sensex and 3554 on the Nifty. A low in 2008, lower than 3554 on Nifty can also lead to a 'bearish engulfing pattern' or a 'dark cloud cover', depending on where Nifty closes on December 31, 2008.

I cannot predict what will happen on December 31, but I can only say now, that 3554 on the Nifty should not be broken, if one hopes to see new highs in 2009.

In any case, 2008 will NOT see a new high.

Nifty Long-Term Trendline Holds For Now - Ayesha

Nifty 3877 Should Hold, Else 2666 - Ayesha

Nifty has fallen considerably from 6356 to below 4000 level. It is now approaching a long-term trendline which has held from 2004. Will the fall stop here?? We have to wait and watch. For now 3877 would be a support. If this doesn't break we could bounce up.Below 3877 we can see 3552 and below that 2666 on the Nifty.

Dow Jone Tonight for July 1 - Viral Joshi

Pivot for Dow is 11,380 and support 11,200.

S1 11,320; S2 11,300; S3 11,200; and R1 11,380; R2 11,400; R3 11,450/11,500.

Above 11,380 Dow is positive and below 11,300 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for July 1 - Viral Joshi

Nifty future has broken the 4000 level, and trades at a discount of 80.55 points, which shows huge shorting on index. While the Nifty spot is at 4040.55, and trying to maintain 4000 support level, the political situation is making bears very strong days.

Pivot is 4000 and support is 3900.

S1 3950; S2 3920; S3 3900; and R1 3980; R2 4000; R3 4080.

Buy above 3965 and if it breaks 3980 then 4000-4080.
Short below 3960 and if it breaks 3950 then 3920-3900.

Daily moving averages:

5DMA 4187;
20DMA 4450;
50DMA 4799;
200DMA 5229.

Nifty Future Update for July 1 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed in the red zone. Market saw selling pressure across the board. As Nifty is close to a near-term support of 3981, a small pullback cannot be ruled out. Breaking the 3981 levels, Nifty will touch our weekly target 3861. For the coming session, if Nifty goes above 4075, it could test 4100-4140 levels.

Good Support at Sensex 13,400-500 - Kailash Pareek

The market fall may have surprised many, but 13400-500 seems to be a good support right now. The market is discounting everything slowly, and there is a strong feeling to just sell everything, isn't it? Well, this is the sign that we may see a pullback of the fall. But, let the market do what it wants.

I see here that many use indicators that shows overbought and oversold conditions. Please note that indicators may stay in oversold zone for several weeks in a bear market and in overbought zone in a bull market.

I will continue to watch the market, and if you have not noticed, this state of the market is exactly the reason why I have not been giving calls.

Nifty Future for June 30 - Inder Bhatia

The Indian market closed on a deep red note. Market saw broad selling across the board and all the gains of June 25-26 were washed out in single trading session. Now the upside rally is limited to 38 percent or 50 percent maximum of the downfall. On the hourly chart shown above, I had shown that Nifty is making lower tops and lower bottoms, which is a weak sign. Even the upside ralies are very fast and small, as compared to downfalls. As you can see on chart, the white line is the downfall and the yellow line is the upside small rallies. The red trendline is showing lower tops and lower bottoms. On the lower side 4032-3972 would act as a strong support zone, while on the upside, 4190 -4300 will act strong resistance zone.

Nifty Weekly Update for June 30-July 4 - Inder Bhatia

DAILY CHART: Last week Nifty fell down by 4.85 percent. Bears took control of the street and hammered Nifty and Sensex on the down side Friday. After making lows of 4093, Nifty saw a smart rally of 4300, in which it retraced 38 percent of the fall from 4668 to 4093. However, all the fizzled out on Friday, with a close 4136, which is near the 4000 level. Here there are some multiple supports of 4032 -3981 levels, but there a much stronger support near 3861. The trendline is as shown on the weekly chart below. For the coming week, closing above 4195 Nifty can test 4240-4294.

WEEKLY CHART: On the weekly Nifty broke the range and closed at a new low. The new range would be 3861-4400. Market players are singing a new song: "Bears are Kings like Singh is King".

NF Weekly June 30-July 4 - Rakesh Chandra

We are in the last phase of selling. On the EOD and hourly basis we are in the 5th Down Wave. The weekly scale is in oversol area. Any decline is a buying opportunity for the coming days.

Upwave (4-5) WUT3 : 4,331;
Upwave (2-3) WUT2 : 4,265;
Upwave (0-1) WUT1: 4,160.

Price is bullish over 4095.18;
Price is bearish below 4055.02.

Down Wave (0-1) WLT1: 3,990;
Down Wave (2-3) WLT2: 3,885;
Down Wave (4-5) WLT3: 3,820.

Predictions for Six Months Ahead - Viral Joshi

I am giving the following predictions for Nifty for the six months ahead.

July - 4300;
Aug - 4700;
Sep - 5000;
Oct - 5200;
Nov - 5500;
Dec - 6000.

Above target are given on a base of last 4 years calculation of average expiry after a bear run is completed.

Your comments are welcome.

Dow Jones Tonight for June 30 - Viral Joshi

The pivot for Dow Jones is 11,380 and support 11,300.

S1 11,320; S2 11,300; S3 11,200; and R1 11,380; R2 11,400; R3 11,450/11,500.

Above 11,380 Dow is positive and below 11,300 Dow is negative.

Nifty Future for Week starting June 30 - Santosh Gundecha

Nifty can get support at 4020-3950 as given earlier. Nifty as well as stocks are in oversold zone. If any fall is arrested long Nifty future for 4330-4425.

Nifty Future For June 30 - Viral Joshi

Nifty closed to the last support 4000 level. If this is not broken then we can turn positive from here. The market is at oversold position so a bounce back will be seen with big points, so shorts should take care with stoploss.

Pivot is 4100 and support is 4000.

S1 4070; S2 4050; S3 4020/4000; and R1 4100; R2 4150; R3 4180/4220.

Buy above 4100 and if it breaks 4150, then 4180-4220.
Short below 4070 and if it breaks 4050 then 4020-4000.

Daily moving average:

5DMA 4233;
20DMA 4485;
50DMA 4816;
200DMA 5232;