Singh is King - Will History Repeat Itself - Sainik

This evening while the persistent bulls rejoice and the huge multitude of bears have a sleepless night, my mind goes back to nearly fifteen years ago, to be precise July 28, 1993.

Leading up to the trust vote for the Narasimha Rao's government, everyone was sure that the government would fall and the market was being sold left right and centre. I too was taken in by the bearishness, and had shorted the market.

The sensex bottomed out at around 2100 (yes Sensex 2100), on July 20, 1993. From there it attempted a moderate rally for the next few days, and on July 28, the day of the vote of confidence, the Sensex was flirting thereabouts.

While the obituaries of the government were being written by everyone, Narasimha Rao kept a a poker face and seemed confident, which seemed strange at that point of time. However, he had an ace up his sleeve: the JMM - yes the same Shibu Soren his cronies - had been virtually "kidnapped" and showered with all "gifts" - which included huge amounts of cash and liquor .

When the voting began, the members of the JMM virtually staggered into the house, not knowing which way their seats were. They voted and what a precious vote it was! The government was saved and the Sensex rallied from 2100 levels for the next few weeks to top out at 2800 levels - a gain of nearly 700 points which translates to 35 percent - yes 35 percent.

Now, just imagine what a 35 percent gain would do to the Nifty today. Nifty would have to go to 5600 levels . In 1993, I had covered my shorts, but lost much more than "my shorts" in the process. The lesson had taught me never underestimate a "silent man". The silent man then was Narasimha, but this time it is another lion, "Manmohan.

The only question in our minds should be: Will history repeat itself ?