Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The Soldier Retreats - Sainik

The bugle has been blown. It is time to pack up and retreat. The way the market has been behaving in the last few days has convinced me that, it's time to turn bearish conclusively and expect lower prices in the short as well as the medium term.

My reasons are:

1. Fundamental: The recent rise in interest rates by RBI has made credit costlier; the government has given in to populist pressure by implementing the sixth pay commission recommendations. Today it has also announced cash to the fertiliser companies, while it has also rejected the Chaturvedi Committe recommendations for the oil sector.

2. Technical: The Nifty has been trading below 9 and 20 Dema for the past few days. The volume is drying up, and biggies like Tisco , ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Satyam Computer, Bank of India, and Reliance Industries, are just not showing any bullish signs. On the other hand the breakdown is severe.

3. Sentiment: The sentiment on the street is to buy the declines in the hope that 4700 is the forseeable target, with higher targets like 5000 also being talked about. The screeching team from CNBC is becoming more bullish in contrast to their stance when Nifty was at 3800.

This is definitely the Slope of Hope. As this fall is akin to Death by a Thousand Cuts, by the time people realize it, it will be too late.

The Soldier Retreats.

Posted by sainik at 8:59 PM

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4 Comments:

Unknown said...

Its rather surprising that this country does not want to pay its soldiers ... and public speaks f increasing deficit when govt implements the 6th PC for its soldiers...

come on man ,.. grow.. you are not the only individual wanting to make money.. all soldiers want earn pure white money.. unlike you.. my friend..
take it coming from a soldier.. dont crib...if it were not for the sacrifice of soldiers.. pakis would be sitting in your next door cabin

August 20, 2008 at 9:31 PM  
nm said...

Its surprizing, this is the same soldier that put the dream of nifty beyond 5000, by comapring Manmohan sing's case and N. Rao case of 1993.

But now his dream has changed!!! No wonder , we cant rule dreams, in desi language they have "oot pataang" nature.
If soldier retreats, what enemy will do --- Bloodbath. If government is saying-- " All Yours",
then Bourses will say " All Yours"

But my soldier, dont run your thought so fast. Im giving you silver linings of market particularly for these type of days--

1)They bahaves lazy, they do exactly what you think, but after a considerable time lag, leaving you hopeless and frustrated.

2)They try to prove every thing wrong on first hand.

3)They close eyes on Dow's rise/fall, they dont enjoy crude @ 113, they dont painic on inflation @ 12.44, they flat on positives, they become little moody on negatives--all "oot pataang".

August 21, 2008 at 1:16 AM  
sainik said...

dear h,

when i said the soldier retreats , i meant "me" as in "sainik" who has turned away from my bullish stance !!!.

i respect the soldiers and all my good friends are soldiers , in the navy, army and the airforce.

my only regret in life has been that i cdnt join the army . i passed the SSB (SERVICE SELECTION BOARD)THREE TIMES, but ultimately was rejected on medical grounds.

though , physically i cdnt join, my spirit is always with the armed forces, so much so , i hv adopted my nickname as "sainik".


having lost my best friend and mentor, to the terrorists in kashmir, i know the anguish.

regarding pay to soldiers, i am the biggest supporter of the principle that the soldiers shd be the best paid people.they shd always be paid more than the bureaucrats.

infact, there shd be a separate pay commission for the forces like it is in the US AND OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, where the pay/perks for the fighting forces are FAR HIGHER than the BUREAUCRATS.

here it is the bureaucrats who take away the lion's share of any pay commission

August 21, 2008 at 7:05 AM  
Ray Seth said...

This is classic flip-flop Sainik. An you cannot be so short-term in your bullishness and bearishness.

In my view, government policies like 6th Pay Commission has little impact as does the fact that Pension Funds have been allowed to invest up to 15% of their corpus. There is the Insurance bill pending in Parliament which would further loosen FDI in the insurance segments, and then the fact that the government is contemplating privatizing its fertilizer companies. None of this has any impact on the sentiment. Thus, your argument is on loose earth.

August 21, 2008 at 9:31 AM  

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