Weekend Views On Nifty for March 9 - Manoj Bhagra

The weekly chart below is a picture that would scare many a Bull. What we have between the two (red and blue) trend lines is one hell of a triangle of almost a 1000 points, and if all goes well for the bears then this line of action goes something like this: 2500 straight down to 2280 straight down to 2200 and then…..eeeks, I am even scared to write further!

The only thing that fails this triangle is if the price closes above the upper (red) line of this triangle making this whole formation a figment of our imagination. Wishful thinking? Yes, pretty much, considering the fact that the 2825/50 zone is the pullback and retest of this formation, with both the lower (blue) trend line and the 20-period MA aligning there.

So far we have held well vis-a-vis the international markets. But just one close below 2500 will be enough for all the analysts screaming BLOOD ON THE STREET (I bet some have already started screaming).


The Daily isn’t any different from weekly. We had a small H&S breakdown and now a retest of neckline at approximately 2680 is not ruled out. The blue support line drawn at 2525 is kind of sanctum sanctorum for the bulls. The overhead resistance is at 2660/80 and finally the 20-period MA is at approximately 2780.

The hourly chart below has a nice channel enveloping the price action. The 2660 mentioned above is nothing but the channel resistance coupled with the 50-period MA on the hourly chart. This is the level which should witness some action because breaking above this is a straight 100-point move! A retest of 2570 area is not ruled out; in fact, personally, I would like this to be revisited and strengthened before we convincingly try to break the 2660 barrier. Anything below this should be strict stop for longs, if any initiated on Friday. Trading would be light and cautious on Monday considering the fact that we have two consecutive holidays on Tuesday and Wednesday.

"It is never too late to be what you might have been." George Elliot